Abstract
The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is widely used for modelling and characterising extremes. In this paper we estimate the GEV parameters with application to the Southeast Asia earthquake catalog. The random value Mmax(τ) can be described by its quantile Qq(t). This function is used to estimate Mmax on the Southeast Asia earthquake catalog (1278-2014).
Seismicity of Southeast Asia in period 1278-2014 was characterized by a representative magnitude earthquake M = 4.0. The positive seismic activity expressed by increase of earthquake number in two phases 2001-2004 and 2008-2013. Maximum magnitude earthquake (Mmax) changes clearly through various duration demonstrating cycle of seismic activity in this area with the most active phase 2004 - 2013 (Mmax = 8.8). Next phase (2013 - 2023) is predicted to be more stable phase with Mmax = 7.95 ± 0.1 predicted with 98% probability.